Selangor, Kedah, Penang next?

6 Feb 09 : 8.00PM | read more [ thenutgraph.com ]

Najib announced the BN was ready to form government in Perak (file pic)

AFTER the state of political turmoil in Perak, following Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's press conference where he said that the Barisan Nasional (BN) is ready to form government in the state, rumours are swirling on the possible fall of other states.

We'll first look at Perak — whether there will be even more defections in the coming days. Then look at the situation in Selangor, Kedah and Penang.

Perak

Political analyst Wong Chin Huat said there would likely be more defections in Perak as the BN would want to balance out its overwhelming Malay majority in the state assembly.

Wong noted that of the 31 seats held by BN, 29 representatives were Malay and only two were Chinese, adding that such a government was not representative of the demographics of the state.

Selangor

Political analyst Khoo Kay Peng is confident that the Perak scenario is not likely to repeat itself in Selangor.

"There is a bigger majority in the Pakatan Rakyat government there, so it's unlikely to happen," he said. "In any event, if the BN were able to engineer a defection, it's not a long-term gain for the BN, as they will have to face the people in the next election. Then they will suffer."

Kedah

In the northern state of Kedah, the PAS-led Pakatan Rakyat government currently has 22 seats to the BN's 14. Although this looks like a comfortable majority, the reality is that the BN needs only five defections to obtain a simple majority.

Even if five assemblypersons choose to leave their parties to become independents, BN could still form a minority government after reaching agreements with the five.

After independent V Arumugam of Bukit Selambau joined PKR following last year's election, PKR has five state assemblypersons. PAS has 16 while DAP has one.

Penang

Penang is the least likely of the five Pakatan Rakyat-led states to face a similar fate as Perak as the PR coalition has a two-thirds majority in the state (29 vs BN's 11).

PR's majority in Penang comprises DAP with 19 seats, PKR with nine and PAS with one.

DAP's Bukit Bendera parliamentarian Liew Chin Tong said there is no possibility of a swing in Penang because PR has a solid 18-seat majority.

Political analyst Khoo concurred that Penang was unlikely to see a change in government as it would require 10 representatives to defect and that's a tall order. read more [thenutgraph.com]