The show is not over till the fat lady sings
This is what Ooi Kee Beng said in his article, BN may pay a high price for Perak polarisation:
The change in government in the Malaysian state of Perak carries with it great implications for a long list of actors on both sides.
The Pakatan Rakyat (PR) government of Mr Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin has been replaced by the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition following controversial defections that left the state assembly with 28 on each side, and with three independents declaring support for the BN.
There has definitely been a shift in power and a realignment of forces has certainly taken place. However, what we are witnessing is far from being an endgame of any kind. The game goes on. Indeed, it is not even clear who the real winners actually are. A lot depends on the time frame one chooses to use.
In the short term, Premier-in-waiting Najib Abdul Razak certainly did gain an advantage — he did manage to outsmart the Pakatan Rakyat state government. He displayed to the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) that he does have leadership qualities, and that he has able advisers.
The Perak crisis undoubtedly improved Mr Najib's stature just in time for the Umno elections next month, when he is to become party president, and therefore Prime Minister of the country. But since his claim to the presidency is in no doubt, the practical advantage of his success in felling the PR government in Perak lies more in bolstering support for candidates he favours for other positions in the party than anything else.
One other person keeping an eye on the party elections is Mr Khairy Jamaluddin, the son-in-law of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Mr Khairy is one of the three candidates trying to become the head of Umno Youth. After the trouncing that Umno received in last year's general elections, Mr Khairy had been trying to reinvent himself as a closet liberal on the verge of coming out.
Mr Khairy grasped the opportunity offered by the Perak crisis to defend a purported challenge to the Perak royal house, and called for Mr Nizar to be expelled from Perak. This return to hardline methods undid much of the hard work Mr Khairy had been putting into improving his image in the eyes of the general public.
PR's anger at losing a government caused leading members of the coalition such as Mr Nizar and Mr Karpal Singh, a Member of Parliament and a veteran of the Democratic Action Party (DAP), to express dissatisfaction at Sultan Azlan Shah. Mr Karpal went so far as to threaten to sue the monarch.
The popularity that the Perak sovereign had enjoyed before the crisis dropped sharply after he refused to dissolve the state assembly at Mr Nizar's request but instead granted the BN — which lost the state in last year's elections — to build a new government based on support from PR defectors.
The outraged Mr Karpal had also called for opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to take responsibility for PR's defeat and resign. DAP's secretary-general Lim Guan Eng had immediately reprimanded Mr Karpal and advised him to use internal channels for expressing his dissatisfaction. Mr Karpal is under pressure from all sides to retrace his steps.
Mr Anwar is being given much of the blame for the crisis, seeing how he was the one who had been, since March 8 last year, attempting to engineer defections from the BN in order to gain federal power. Pressure on him to regain the initiative in the ongoing battle with Mr Najib is also mounting. Two upcoming by-elections will provide Mr Anwar with that chance.
In the long run though, the victors may have to pay a high price for the Perak "coup". What the four defectors in this Shakespearean drama will actually gain is not clear in any way. Aside from whatever might have been promised them by the BN, their political future looks very bleak indeed.
The two PR-defecting assemblymen were, and are, facing corruption charges. The BN offer for them to switch sides promised them some respite. But as with Mr Nasaruddin Hashim, the BN defector who triggered the drama on Jan 26 and who re-defected 10 days later, the duo cannot expect a long career in politics.
DAP's Hee Jit Foong's decision to fell the government — whether done for monetary gains, for position or to spite her party — has made her a hated person in her constituency, and it is a mystery how she imagines to continue being in the public eye after her defection.
The lesson that the PR has to learn from this is that it cannot hope to achieve stable and good governance in the long run if incompetence and a lack of commitment continue to riddle its ranks. Many of its state assemblymen gained positions beyond their ability to manage following the March 8 voter revolt. The PR will have to take on the uncomfortable task of dismissing inept loyalists and replacing them with new talents in some graceful fashion.
It will also have to imagine a life after Mr Anwar. To do that, it has to form coalitional institutions to keep dialogue and understanding alive among its members.
As for the BN, the price that it will have to pay will not be small. Further polarisation has now taken place, not least among Perakians, and much anger has been stirred up against Mr Najib's methods. This will make it practically impossible for non-Malay BN parties in the north to campaign in any effective fashion in coming elections.
The Perak crisis also reminds Malaysians that the war between the coalitions will continue for a long time to come, and where the peninsula is concerned, it will be fought in the electoral frontline states of not only Perak, but also Kedah and Negri Sembilan.
The writer is a Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. His latest book is March 8: Eclipsing May 13 (with Johan Saravanamuttu and Lee Hock Guan, Iseas)
On 8 March 2008, Barisan Nasional won 28 seats in the Perak State Assembly. Although Umno won 27 seats and MCA one, it was Barisan Nasional and not Umno or MCA who contested the general election. Therefore, it was Barisan Nasional and not Umno or MCA who ‘owned’ those 28 seats. The second biggest winner was DAP, who won 18 seats. PKR and PAS came in third and fourth respectively.
This means, technically, Barisan Nasional should have formed the Perak State Government as it won more seats than DAP, PKR or PAS, individually. No doubt, many will argue that Pakatan Rakyat won 31 seats against Barisan Nasional’s 28, so Pakatan Rakyat should form the government. But Pakatan Rakyat does not legally exist. It is an informal and unregistered coalition. Pakatan Rakyat did not contest the elections. Those who did were Barisan Nasional, DAP, PKR and PAS.
Yes, four parties and not two parties contested the elections. And these four parties were Barisan Nasional, DAP, PKR and PAS. And Barisan Nasional won the most number of seats, 28 in total. The next in line was DAP with 18 seats, followed by PKR and PAS that won less than ten seats each.
The Sultan of Perak should have sworn in Barisan Nasional as the new state government of Perak since it had the most number of seats. But it would have been a minority government and how long could a minority government have lasted? The first meeting of the state assembly would need to be held within six months. And if the COMBINED 31 seats of DAP, PKR and PAS pass a vote of no confidence against the 28-seat Barisan Nasional government, the government would have fallen.
Note I wrote ‘the COMBINED 31 seats of DAP, PKR and PAS’ and not ‘the 31 seats of Pakatan Rakyat’. Pakatan Rakyat does not legally exist. DAP, PKR and PAS do.
The Sultan of Perak was not being generous or was taking sides in the matter. He knew that a 28-seat state government would not last if the 31 non-Barisan Nasional State Assemblypersons passed a vote of no confidence against it in the State Assembly. So he allowed DAP, PKR and PAS to combine their seats and form the new Perak state government. The Sultan was just being practical.
But the Sultan could have sworn in Barisan Nasional as the new Perak state government if he wanted to. Then the new state government calls for the first sitting of the Perak State Assembly. Understandably, the opposition would call for a vote of no confidence.
This, however, does not mean it will be 31 opposition State Assemblypersons against 28 Barisan Nasional State Assemblypersons. We are just assuming it will be so. What if two opposition State Assemblypersons vote with Barisan Nasional? It would then be 30 against 29 and the vote of no confidence would be defeated.
The two opposition State Assemblypersons need not even resign from DAP, PKR or PAS. They can still remain in their respective parties and not join Barisan Nasional. All they need to do is vote with Barisan Nasional and the vote of no confidence would be defeated and Barisan Nasional would remain the Perak state government.
The Sultan had two choices. One would be to allow DAP, PKR and PAS to combine their seats and form a LOOSE coalition and probably see it collapse within six months due to crossovers. The second would be to allow Barisan Nasional to form the government and probably see it collapse within six months due to a vote of no confidence passed against it in the State Assembly.
Whatever it may be, both scenarios involve a possible collapse of the state government within a mere few months. But the Sultan chose the first option: to allow DAP, PKR and PAS to combine their seats and ‘outgun’ Barisan Nasional’s 28 seats by just three seats. This means a mere shift of two seats and the government of Perak will change hands.
And this did happen exactly as forecasted. And the same thing would probably have happened as well if Barisan Nasional had formed the Perak state government. And it would take just months for it to happen.
The Sultan had his reservations. Whether Barisan Nasional, or a loose coalition of DAP, PKR and PAS, formed the new Perak state government, the government would be unstable and may not be able to last. PAS held Kelantan with a one-seat majority in the Kelantan State Assembly and lasted. But PAS is different. The PAS people are more committed. We can’t say the same thing for DAP and PKR who were already quarrelling even before the government could be formed.
Note the quality of the PKR people. Even though it had more seats than PAS, it could not provide the Menteri Besar and had to pass the job over to PAS even though it had the least number of seats in the Perak State Assembly. PKR just did not have the quality people needed to become Menteri Besar of Perak. What hope can you give a party that lacks quality candidates?
The Perak situation was a crisis waiting to happen. And it would not take that long to happen. One false move and the DAP-PKR-PAS loose coalition government of Perak would collapse. And it did collapse because two of the PKR people walked into a trap and found themselves faced with corruption charges.
But the problem does not end here. What happens to the corruption charges against those two ‘independent’ State Assemblymen? Will the charges now be dropped? If the charges are dropped then it would become too obvious. But if the charges remain and they face trial, then another problem crops up.
First would be what surfaces in the trial. If the trial reveals they were fixed up, then Barisan Nasional would look bad. But if they were not fixed up and really are guilty of corruption, Barisan Nasional would also look bad. Both ways Barisan Nasional would look bad. And if they are found guilty because they really are guilty then there will be two more by-elections in Perak, which the opposition will surely win. And we will end up with 30 opposition seats against only 29 from Barisan Nasional.
This means the Perak government will again change hands like it did last week, but this time from Barisan Nasional to a loose coalition of DAP, PKR and PAS.
Then we have the problem of Hee. She is expected to resign due to the pressure she is facing. This means yet another seat will fall vacant and yet another by-election will be held.
Maybe over the 11 months since 8 March 2008, the loose coalition of DAP, PKR and PAS was running Perak with uncertainty about its future. But the new Barisan Nasional government of Perak is not on any more solid ground than the previous government. It too faces the possibility of being driven out of office.
The show is not over till the fat lady sings, goes the popular saying. And the fat lady has not sung yet. What will the final curtain be? Your guess is as good as mine. But I predict Perak will again change hands in the not too distant future. And since the Sultan of Perak has already set the trend on how governments shall change, the same formula will have to be applied once DAP, PKR and PAS, combined, have more seats than Barisan Nasional. The knife, as they say, cuts both ways.
Karpal wants Anwar Ibrahim to take the blame for the Perak fiasco. At the DAP Pandamaran Chinese New Year open house earlier this week, I said, in my speech, that I support what Karpal said. Hey, we accuse Barisan Nasional of not respecting freedom of speech. If we don’t allow Karpal to speak his mind then how better are we compared to Barisan Nasional?
Anyway, while I support what Karpal said, the blame should not be placed entirely on Anwar’s shoulders. We are not like Barisan Nasional. Barisan Nasional looks for scapegoats. We are a loose coalition called Pakatan Rakyat. In Pakatan Rakyat we practise decisions by consensus. And decisions by consensus mean there must be collective responsibility. So no one person must take the blame. The entire leadership has to take the blame.
So, while it is well and fine that Karpal wants Anwar to resign, I was of the opinion that if resignations were in order then all the top leaders of the three parties must resign. The press reported that I said all three top leaders must resign -- Anwar, Lim Kit Siang and Hadi Awang -- which is not what I said. In fact, when the press asked me whether I meant the three top leaders, I replied, “Not three. Why three? It may even be 30. All those responsible for the decision that resulted in what happened in Perak are equally responsible.”
We seem to forget that one of the major beefs we have against Barisan Nasional is that they arrest and jail us or detain us without trial when we criticise the government. We demand freedom of expression. But we only want the freedom to criticise Umno or Barisan Nasional. We do not want freedom to criticise the opposition.
You can disagree with what Karpal said. But you must respect his right to say what he wants to say. If not, then we are just like Barisan Nasional. In principle, I agree with his demand for the resignation of Anwar -- in principle only as far as his right to demand Anwar’s resignation is concerned, although I do not share the same sentiments. But I disagree that it must only be Anwar who has to resign -- that is if we want him to resign. If there are going to be any resignations then many more have to do so in the spirit of collective responsibility. We do not want to see the lynching of scapegoats a la Barisan Nasional in the opposition Pakatan Rakyat.
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