A by-election Barisan does not need now

Thursday December 4, 2008 - by BARADAN KUPPUSAMY

Another parliamentary by-election has been forced upon Barisan Nasional, at a time when the ruling coalition may not be ready to face voters

BY-ELECTIONS are usually the forte of the ruling Barisan Nasional government, what with its limitless resources and formidable machinery, but after the March 8 thrashing, it is fighting shy of by-elections.

Ground conditions are still raw for Barisan, and other issues compound the problems for the coalition.

The unending bickering between Barisan component parties, the ugly passions sparked by the hotly contested Umno elections and dissatisfaction by the abrupt manner of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi’s retirement have dented Barisan’s ability to battle the Opposition.

But fate keeps shoving by-elections Barisan’s way and the latest is Kuala Terengganu, following the death of incumbent and Deputy Education Minister Datuk Razali Ismail on Nov 28.

The first by-election of the season, in Permatang Pauh, was forced on Barisan after incumbent Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Ismail resigned in favour of her husband and PKR supremo Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Anwar’s victory and triumphant entry into parliament was a major psychological blow to Barisan.

Another potential by-election was averted when Barisan withdrew its election petition for the Bandar Baru-Kulim constituency that was won by PKR’s Zulkifly Noordin.

In September, an election court declared the election for the Pensiangan parliamentary seat in Sabah void and a by-election is delayed only because incumbent Tan Sri Joseph Kurup has appealed the decision in the Federal Court.

There is no escape but face the Kuala Terengganu by-election, which is wholly unexpected and could not have come at a worst possible time for Umno and Barisan.

“Although overall, it is a contest between Barisan and Pakatan, at the ground level the fight is between PAS and Umno,” said Zulkifly Sulong, former editor of PAS organ Harakah.

“It is a major battle and will have a significant impact on the psyche of the people and national politics,” he said, declining to go into specifics.

Razali won the seat by 1,933 votes against PAS stalwart Dr Syed Azman Syed Nawawi, now the Batu Buruk assemblyman, in the 2004 general election but his majority was slashed to 628 in the March 8 contest.

It is a slim majority and a lot now depends also on the 11% Chinese voters in the 80,000-odd electorate who have traditionally backed the MCA, which controls the Bandar state seat, one of four in the Kuala Terengganu constituency.

Despite a huge effort and a campaign personally led by PAS president Ustaz Hadi Awang, PAS failed to win back Terengganu in 2004 and this year.

It ruled Terengganu for one term in 1999 and in that time, it made headlines for enacting hudud laws.

The failure, despite PAS’ success across the country, was a blot on Hadi and the up-coming by-election is seen by his supporters as a chance to redeem himself and show his mettle.

On the Umno side, the ball is in the court of Prime Minister-designate Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

As the new leader of Umno and Barisan, it is on his shoulders to put together a winning strategy and try to retain the seat.

Success, no matter how thin the winning majority, would be a boost as he walks into the Umno general assembly in March next year.

A defeat would not be a total disaster either.

This is because victory or defeat will not change the power equation in parliament but the psychological impact on party supporters would be enormous on either side.

With controversies raging over ketuanan Melayu, the continuance of NEP policies and Islam, the outcome in Kuala Terengganu would also indicate how rural Malay voters stand on such issues.

PAS vice president Mohamad Sabu, who stood against Razali, is likely to be fielded again although there is some talk that this might not be the case.

Mohamad Sabu is not only popular in the party but also a sought-after speaker at DAP and PKR events, and even at non-governmental organisation. He is widely acknowledged as an all-season performer.

But he is not a local boy, which veterans say is a handicap because voters always look more favourably on a local boy.

Abdullah said Barisan Nasional was confident of a victory, provided it and Umno settled differences and offered a united front to voters.

However, that’s the kind of unity Barisan has been unable to show since the March 8 losses at the hands of a resurgent Pakatan Rakyat opposition.

“We are our own worst enemy,” said a Barisan component party leader.

“We are still in denial, we have not got our act together and now we have to face the voters again.”