Opposition makes inroads but Umno is digging in

Malaysianinsider— Business Times Singapore

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 24 — The ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition faces a crucial electoral test next month in Terengganu where the dominant United Malays National Organisation (Umno), will square off against the opposition Parti Islam SeMalaysia (Pas).

The by-election is a result of the death of Kuala Terengganu’s lawmaker, a deputy minister from Umno. In the March 8 General Election, he’d narrowly fended off his Pas opponent by a slim majority of over 600 votes. Thus, the outcome is crucial to the BN’s credibility and its claims to be undisputed master of Malaysia’s destiny.

The claim, almost taken for granted following the BN’s continued hegemony since independence in 1957, became doubtful after the March 8 general elections and the BN’s worst ever electoral outing in the nation’s history.

The ruling coalition lost five state governments to a unified opposition coalition as well as its two-thirds majority in Parliament.

The results have had calamitous consequences for Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi who is also Umno president. Faced with incessant demands from critics - most notably former premier Mahathir Mohamad — that he take responsibility for the election results and step aside, Abdullah, 68, caved in to the pressure and announced that he would not seek re-election in Umno polls slated for early next year.

He will be succeeded by his deputy, Najib Razak, who will take over as Malaysia’s sixth premier in March.

No one, however, thinks that Najib, 55, will have an easy time of it, electorally speaking. The public disquiet that almost undid Abdullah has not gone away and, for the first time in years, the Opposition is headed by a charismatic leader in the form of former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim.

Indeed, Anwar, 63, was crucial to the Opposition’s performance last March.

He wielded a disparate — and some would suggest, still unworkable — coalition of opposition parties with his National Justice Party (Parti Keadilan Rakyat, PKR) mediating between the religiously conservative Pas on one side and the left-leaning Democratic Action Party (DAP) on the other. But Anwar’s force of will prevailed and the coalition still survives.

Still, Najib is under no immediate threat. Anwar had promised to engineer enough defections from BN to form the next government but that possibility is now remote. Reason: so long as the unpopular Abdullah was prime minister, the possibility of defections was real but with a new prime minister waiting in the wings, the threat of mass crossovers has all but evaporated.

And Najib has some things going for him. One of the main grouses against Abdullah’s administration was the rising cost of living catalysed primarily by soaring oil prices. But that's come off now and could have taken some of the edge off public anger.

Even so, other problems remain.

Malaysian Indians, who form eight per cent of the country’s 27 million people, remain largely disgruntled with the government over accusations that the vast majority of the community is economically marginalised.

Indeed, political analysts agree that the discontent is manifest among the Indian masses, 85 per cent of whom are largely disenfranchised Tamils and who, paradoxically, form the core constituency of the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), a BN component party. The Indians do not form the majority in any parliamentary constituency but, as they showed in the last election, an emphatic swing either way could make a difference.

The Chinese, who form 26 per cent of the population, aren’t happy either. They weren’t happy by Umno demands in 2007 that affirmative action policies favouring ethnic Malays be reinforced.

More recently, the community was angered by a statement by Mukhriz Mahathir, the youngest son of Dr Mahathir and an aspirant for the post of Umno Youth head, that ‘perhaps’ vernacular schools should have been merged with the national schools to ensure one system.

Najib’s best bet is the possibility that he could get the Malays, who form 64 per cent of the population, to unite behind Umno. In the last election, they were split evenly between the various parties. Given Najib’s lineage — he is the son of Malaysia’s second, and highly respected, premier Razak Hussein, there are those who suggest he could pull it off.

Indeed, political scientists agree that ethnic Malays could swing behind Umno and BN precisely because of non-Malay anger against the government coupled with Anwar’s frequent statements that Malay dominance is a thing of the past.

Historically, anything that can threaten Malay political dominance of the country has been resisted by the Malays and it isn’t at all clear if Anwar’s exhortation resonate among the Malay masses.

The Kuala Terengganu by-election could be the first litmus test for Anwar’s multi-racial appeal.

Looking ahead, the main interest in Umno’s March elections revolves around the deputy presidency, a position that carries with it the post of deputy prime minister. Although it is a three cornered fight, the battle is likely to coalesce into a fight between International Trade Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and Melaka Chief Minister Ali Rustam.

Right now, some pundits are favouring Ali but it’s a long way till March.